Notes from GPIA Director #4
This note by Director Peter J. Hoffman is another contribution to the ongoing feature, “What You Don’t Know About International Affairs Could Kill You,” a spotlight on current issues in international affairs.
COP is Copping Out
The physical climate is changing, but the political climate is not—the 27th Conference of Parties (COP) negotiations, where decision-making for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, began yesterday in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt is yet another exercise in a theater of concern while polluters take no substantial responsibility for continuing emit more than the Earth can bear. The impacts of climate change have been evident for years: most notably higher temperatures, more violent weather, and an increase in droughts, famines, acidification of oceans, and loss of biodiversity. In 2022 alone, there have been numerous climate disasters around the world. In South Asia, a severe heat wave followed by massive floods in Pakistan killed at least 1,700 and displaced 8 million. In East Africa rainfall has been below average once again, making this potential the fifth year in a row, which is the longest streak in 40 years. Major river systems, such as China’s Yangtze, the United States’ Mississippi, and Europe’s Danube, have all seen marked declines in water levels.
Global temperatures have already increased 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times and before the 2015 Paris Agreement was signed, global temperatures were on track to rise by a staggering 4 degrees Celsius by 2100. At COP26, countries set “national determined contributions” (NDCs) to limit carbon emissions and address carbon change. Although only 29 countries have increased their commitments since then, there has been some progress in the past year; in 2021 a tabulation of commitments pointed to a 13.7% increase in emissions by 2030 compared to 2010 level, but a 2022 assessment that factors in new pledges suggests that the increase will be 10.6%. However, while this is an improvement, it is not nearly enough—the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has stated that greenhouse gas emissions must decline by 45% of 2010 level by 2030 to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Instead, as a recent UN report noted, there is “no credible pathway in place to 1.5 Celsius in place,” and, in fact, given existing policies the world is on heading toward a warming of 2.8 degrees Celsius, and if pledges are kept, this would still result in an increase of 2.6 degrees Celsius.
Moreover, the issue of disparities in repercussions and responsibilities between rich industrial countries and poorer ones must be addressed. Africa, for instance, has emitted the least amount of carbon, yet is by far the most vulnerable to how it damages the environment. At the global level, it is estimated that by 2030 developing countries could incur damage costing between $290-580 billion dollars each year due to climate change even if measures to adapt are implemented, and if warming trends continue by 2050 this could increase to $1.7 trillion a year. It has been a difficult political battle to put the question of “loss and damage” (climate financing and aid) on the agenda, but still left off is a discussion of liability.
The political economy of energy, food production, and development has long favored the North at the expense of the South. The uneven consequences of climate change are another manifestation of this imbalance. If the fractures seen between the North and the South thus far persist in COP deliberations, and there is no agreement that speaks to disproportionate uses of resources, the dangers may initially materialize in the South, but they will inevitably come to encompass the North. Commenting of the politics of this occasion, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres starkly summarized what is at stake, “Humanity has a choice: cooperate or perish. It is either a Climate Solidarity Pact—or a Collective Suicide Pact.” Carbon and other atmospheric pollutants are worldwide challenges that can only be addressed through global solutions that are predicated on recognizing not only aggregate data and trends but also acknowledging the climate of inequality and impunity that has pervaded environmental governance.
=> Energy: Fossil Fuels Not Going Extinct
The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2022 predicts that fossil fuel use will peak in the 2030s and then steadily decline while being replaced by renewables. That being said, in 2050 it is estimated that fossil fuels will still roughly produce 60% of all energy.
=> World Hunger: Children Bear the Burden
Up to 222 million people around the world are facing acute hunger, but it is concentrated in certain regions—47 million in the Horn of Africa alone. Furthermore, hunger disproportionately impacts children; 1 in 3 children live in severe food poverty and 45% of child deaths are associated with malnutrition.
=> Infectious Disease: Zoonotic Outbreaks Spreading
Diseases that pass from humans to animals—“zoonotic”—have been growing in scope and severity. The best known of these is perhaps the predominant coronavirus, COVID-19, which has infected over 630 million worldwide, killing more than 6.6 million. However, there are others that are far more lethal, and though not as widespread, they are on the rise. On September 20 an Ebola outbreak was declared in Uganda—this “Sudan” strain has no vaccine as opposed to the “Zaire” strain that does—and the most recent data documents 131 confirmed cases, 48 died, making it the eighth largest wave on record. Moreover, the disease appears to be expanding its presence, moving from the rural areas in the center of the country to Kampala (population 3.6 million). The six countries neighboring Uganda (Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, and Tanzania) are bracing for a potential spread. Since 2000, 32 outbreaks of Ebola—19 in the last decade, whereas only 13 in the previous one. Overall, the number of zoonotic disease outbreaks have increased 63% in the past decade.
=> Journalists Killings: Majority Go Unpunished
From 2016 through 2020, 400 journalists were killed, a drop of about 20% from 2010-2015. And in 2021, 55 were killed, continuing a decline. But penalties for these murders are significantly lacking. UNESCO reported that although the percentage of journalists killed with impunity has declined by 9% over the past decade, in 2020-2021 of the 117 journalists killed an alarming 86% of those resulted in no criminal penalties imposed.
*Read previous columns in our previous newsletter editions.