2016/2017 Janey Workshop: Lucas Perello
Janey Fellow Lucas Perello will be presenting his ongoing work based on the Janey Summer Fellowship.
The session will take place in the building located on 79 5th Ave between 15th St and 16th St. Room D 1618 (16th Floor)
Looking forward to seeing you there.
“Breaking with a two-party system: the continuity and change of political preferences in Honduras, 1982-2013”
This paper examines the continuity and change of voter turnout and party identification in Honduras, emphasizing the events that took place from 2009 to 2013. Honduras has traditionally been defined as having one of the most stable party systems in the Latin America. However, in 2009 the country endured a democratic reversal, which added to a series of problems, led to the erosion of its traditional two-party system. We describe the emergence and consolidation of Honduras’ two-party system, as well as its ongoing decline. The 2012 and 2014 Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) survey waves are employed to portray the presence of continuity and change. We run probit regression models and predicted probabilities that focus on voter turnout, party identification, and identification with non-traditional parties. Our findings indicate that the determinants of voter turnout drastically changed, as elections became more competitive between traditional and non-traditional parties. Interestingly, the levels of party identification remain relatively similar despite the appearance of new political parties. Though we see no significant differences in identifying with a political party between 2012 and 2014, we do find evidence of change in the composition of identification with non-traditional parties, especially among Hondurans with higher levels of education that self-identify with the center and left of the ideological spectrum.